Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,233,923$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.44 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,612,567.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 126.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,612,567.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $146,935$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.9 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{134,266.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 55.1)}}\) (asimptote \(134,266.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,789,125$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $390,516$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{526,450.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(526,450.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,680$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,007.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(51,007.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,614$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $60,296$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.55 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,914.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 150.2)}}\) (asimptote \(153,914.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,294$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(42.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,871$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $115,789$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,016.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(109,016.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,934$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,768.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,768.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,886$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,276$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(438 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,592.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(56,592.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,116$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,496.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 155.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,496.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,238$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,908$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,337.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 171.9)}}\) (asimptote \(233,337.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(139 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,354.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 93.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,354.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,242$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,053$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(358 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,829.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 126.9)}}\) (asimptote \(90,829.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,734$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(22.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,250.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,250.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,707$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,630$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(230 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,204.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 138.1)}}\) (asimptote \(40,204.9\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $400$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{787.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(787.3\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,582$ on 2020-07-26
